With the Presidential election upon us, many people wonder how political shifts might impact the housing market—especially here in Boise, Idaho and surrounding areas. Let’s dive into the data and find out what past trends and current market conditions reveal.
How Election Years Impact the Housing Market
Typically, the fall season in real estate brings a slight slowdown, as homebuyers and sellers ease off their summer buying and selling activities. But in election years, this slowdown often becomes more pronounced. Research shows that home sales usually dip a bit more in the weeks leading up to Election Day. In fact, 23% of potential first-time homebuyers surveyed by Redfin say they’re holding off on purchases until after the election. This cautious approach is often fueled by uncertainty about potential policy changes and market impacts.
In Boise, where home prices and inventory have already felt pressure due to high demand and limited supply, this pause adds a unique layer of complexity. With buyers temporarily stepping back, some sellers might be noticing fewer offers or longer time on the market than they’d typically see in Boise’s competitive landscape.
Post-Election Rebound: What History Tells Us
The encouraging news is that the election-year slowdown usually doesn’t last long. Historically, the housing market picks up momentum after the election dust settles. Data shows that home sales have increased 82% of the time in the year following an election. That’s because once buyers and sellers gain clarity, they often move forward with more confidence. Here in Boise, this rebound could be especially strong, as pent-up demand drives competition for the limited housing inventory that continues to characterize the market.
The Housing Forecast for 2025
If the post-election trends hold, we can expect a stronger housing market in 2025. National projections suggest an increase from 4.6 million home sales in 2024 to about 5.2 million in 2025, aligning with expectations of a post-election boost. For Boise, this could mean a brisk pace of home sales in the coming year as more buyers jump back into the market.
With Boise’s growing appeal as a city that combines both small-town charm and big-city amenities, the post-election period could see more out-of-state buyers reenter the market, amplifying demand. This rebound may lead to a competitive buying environment where limited inventory and demand from new residents can push prices upward.
Bottom Line
While election years often bring a short-term slowdown to the housing market, especially in places like Boise where demand typically outstrips supply, these pauses are temporary. Past trends show that home sales frequently increase after a Presidential election, and current forecasts predict a similar uptick in 2025. If you’re considering a move, rest assured that the market is likely to pick up pace soon—making early 2025 a potentially strong time to buy or sell a home.
As we await the election results, the Boise and Treasure Valley housing market remains one to watch, with anticipation for what the post-election climate will bring to our thriving cities.
